The 6th Congressional District of Texas’ special election is finished and the results spell doom for Nancy Pelosi and the Dems heading into the critical 2022 midterms. Historically, the party out of power takes back some at the first midterms as Americans tend to like divided government.
This year with redistricting mostly controlled by the GOP at the state level, many think the GOP will do even better than usual. But what the experts really look at are the special elections in competitive districts leading up to the midterms as they show you where the voters really are. In Trump’s first two years the numbers in the special elections, even if the GOP won a few, trended towards the Dems. Even when the GOP candidate won, the Dems were getting a higher percentage of votes than they had previously.
The Dems took back the House and installed Pelosi as speaker. So all eyes were on the special election in Texas – the first competitive special election this year – to see where the electorate really stood. And Pelosi cannot be happy with what she saw.
The race showed a 16% shift towards the GOP and those are numbers that, if repeated across the country, will put Pelosi out of a job in 2022.
Worse for Nancy, the Dem candidates got shut out of the general election and only secured around 36% of the vote.
The special election took place with 23 different candidates running for the seat. Republican Susan Wright, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump and is the widow to the late Congressman Ronald Wright, got the most votes among the 23 candidates in the primary. Republican Texas State Rep. Jake Ellzey came in second and will face Wright in the general
Trump issued a statement saying, “Congratulations to Susan Wright on her great surge yesterday which made her NUMBER ONE and assured her participation in the runoff against another Republican. The Democrats have just conceded the race. Susan surged after I gave her an endorsement last week. Her wonderful husband is looking down, and is very proud of her!”
Jana Lynne Sanchez, the main Dem candidate finished in third behind two GOP candidates. The top two in the primary run in the general election no matter the party so not only did the GOP see voters shift their way, the Dems won’t even have a candidate for this seat in the general election.
A GOP election expert explained the shift: “Republicans got 61.9% of the vote totals among different candidates while Democrats got just 36.8% of the vote total among their candidates.
“Trump won this district by just 3%, Republicans outperformed him by 22% tonight, and Ron Wright’s 2020 performance by 16%. A very impressive showing, bucking most experts’ expectations for the race.”
From Fox News:
The special election in Texas’ Sixth Congressional District on Saturday was seen as the first competitive race since Joe Biden was elected president and a bellwether on how a district that was seen to be purpling reacted to the new administration’s first 100 days.
The results were seen as a blow to Democrats because two Republicans earned enough votes to advance to a runoff. Susan Wright, the wife of the late Republican Rep. Ron Wright, was followed in votes by Jake Ellzey who eked out a win over Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez. (Sanchez conceded in a social media post. She lost by about 400 votes.)
John Fund, a national affairs columnist for the National Review, took to Twitter on Sunday to consider the outcome of the race and the general popularity of a president who just released his vision for the future of the country.
“If Biden Is So Popular, Why This?” Fund asked, linking to a story with the election result. “Republicans grabbed the two runoff slots in the Texas 6 special election yesterday.
Dems were shut out, their candidates won a total 36% in a Dallas area seat that Trump carried by only 3 points last November.”
Dems should prepare for a SHELLACKING in 2022… "Democrats aiming to flip Texas House seat fall short as 2 Republicans qualify for runoff" https://t.co/j5Sga30LPI— Tammy Bruce (@HeyTammyBruce) May 2, 2021
Trump won this district by just 3%, Republicans outperformed him by 22% tonight, and Ron Wright's 2020 performance by 16%. A very impressive showing, bucking most experts' expectations for the race.— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) May 2, 2021