Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has a near-impossible task of trying to keep the House in Dem hands in what is looking like a red wave election. Americans prefer a divided government because we do not trust either party, so we like a balance of power where neither side can do something too stupid.
Historically you can expect a red wave, but if you add in the total incompetence of the Biden administration, to be fair they have a few months to try to turn it around before the 20222 campaign season begins but much damage has been done, most predict a red wave bigger than any we have seen before.
Polls can be wrong and the public is fickle so the best way to look into the future is to watch what the politicians do, not what they say. And senior Dem politicians are retiring in droves rather than run and lose in 2022. Or run and win but be powerless in the minority.
Senior House leaders have been round the block and they know how hard it is to win when a wave election goes against you. They are expensive, it costs a lot to lose, and paying losing campaign debts hurts.
Retiring early however has many advantages. They leave with their dignity by avoiding a crushing loss.
Campaign bank accounts are full of cash they can convert, like Paul Ryan, to a personal slush fundish non-profit.
And they can, while still in power, leverage that fading power for a good job at a K Street lobbyist shop.
But losing a handful of senior members to the reality of DC is one thing, it would be a political earthquake if Nancy Pelosi retired rather than face her grim future in the House.
The message it would send is clear – Dems are doomed. So it was startling and alarming to Dems around the county when Pelosi went on CNN’s “State of the Union” with Jake Tapper and would not confirm she is running for reelection.
“I do want to ask about your own future in Congress. Are you going to run for reelection?” Tapper asked.
“Oh, you think I’m going to make an announcement right here and now?” she said.
“You’re going to run for reelection, though, yes?” Tapper asked again.
“Why would I tell you that now?” Pelosi said.
“Probably, I would have that conversation with my family first, if you don’t mind.”
Democratic House Nancy Pelosi won't say whether or not she plans to run for Speaker again if Democrats keep the House, telling @jaketapper she will that conversation with her family first. pic.twitter.com/BrvnGmcMsr— State of the Union (@CNNSotu) October 24, 2021